Kimi Antonelli has transformed the 2026 Formula 1 championship from a three-way fight into a race against the clock.

The Mercedes driver arrived at Monza with a 59-point advantage over George Russell. After starting 19th and producing one of the most remarkable comeback victories of the season, Antonelli left Italy with 267 points and a 66-point lead over his team-mate. Lewis Hamilton is third on 191, while Lando Norris follows on 171.

The numbers alone do not make Antonelli champion yet. But they do explain why the Italian has become the clear favorite with the season entering its final stretch.

Russell himself effectively acknowledged that reality after Monza, saying he was no longer thinking about a championship “comeback” and instead wanted to maximize each remaining weekend.

So, can anyone still beat Antonelli? Yes. But the margin for error is becoming smaller with every race.

Antonelli has 66 points in hand

The simplest way to understand the championship is to look at the gap. Antonelli has 267 points. Russell has 201. Hamilton has 191.

That means Russell needs to score at least 67 more points than Antonelli over the remaining races to finish ahead of him. Hamilton needs an even larger turnaround, requiring a 77-point swing.

There are still enough points available for either Mercedes rival to make that happen.

But they would need Antonelli to stop scoring at his current rate while simultaneously producing a near-perfect run themselves.

That is the crucial distinction between mathematical possibility and realistic probability.

Antonelli has already won seven Grands Prix in 2026 and has consistently converted Mercedes’ advantage into championship points. His latest victory was particularly significant because he did it from 19th, beating Russell in the closing stages after recovering through the field.

The Italian also now has the same number of career F1 victories as Russell — seven — despite having collected all seven this season.

What happens if Russell wins everything?

The remaining calendar contains 10 Grands Prix, from Madrid on September 13 through Abu Dhabi on December 6. Singapore is the only remaining Sprint weekend.

That leaves a maximum of 258 points available to a driver who wins every remaining Grand Prix and the Sprint.

If Russell achieved that perfect run, he would add 258 points to his current 201 and finish on 459.

That means Antonelli would need to score at least 193 points from the remaining races to finish ahead of Russell, assuming Russell collected the maximum available score.

In other words, even in the most extreme scenario possible, Antonelli would need roughly three-quarters of the remaining points to guarantee finishing ahead of a Russell who wins absolutely everything. That illustrates both sides of the equation.

Russell can still mathematically win the championship. But he cannot simply start winning races and expect the title to fall into his hands. Antonelli has enough of a buffer that he can afford several imperfect weekends and remain in control.

Hamilton faces an even bigger mountain

Hamilton’s situation is considerably more difficult. The Ferrari driver sits on 191 points, 76 behind Antonelli and 10 behind Russell.

If Hamilton scored the maximum 258 points available from this point onward, he would reach 449.

Antonelli therefore needs 183 more points to finish ahead of Hamilton even if the seven-time World Champion produces a perfect run. That represents a little more than 70% of the points still available.

Hamilton has also acknowledged how difficult the title situation has become after a frustrating Italian GP, where he finished sixth following his clash with Ferrari team-mate Charles Leclerc.

The championship is not mathematically over for Hamilton, but Ferrari would need a major change in competitive form while Antonelli’s campaign would need to deteriorate significantly.

The real threat is not one bad weekend

The most important question for Antonelli is not whether he can afford one poor result. He can.

The danger is a sequence of them. A retirement, a poor qualifying session, a difficult circuit for Mercedes and a strong run from Russell could suddenly remove a large portion of the advantage.

That is why Antonelli himself has resisted the idea that the championship is already decided.

After Monza, the Mercedes driver pointed toward the unpredictable nature of the remaining races and even named Max Verstappen among the drivers who could still influence the championship picture. The point is important.

Formula 1 does not reward a championship based on projections. It rewards the points collected after every race. And there are still 10 opportunities for the competitive order to change.

Madrid could provide the first major test

The timing could hardly be more interesting.

F1 leaves Monza’s long straights and low-drag demands and heads directly to the new MADRING circuit for the Spanish GP from September 11-13.

The Madrid race will be the first Formula 1 event at the new circuit and represents a completely different challenge from Monza. The official schedule has qualifying on Saturday, September 12, and the race on Sunday, September 13.

That matters because Mercedes’ advantage cannot simply be assumed to transfer unchanged from one circuit to another.

Antonelli’s championship lead has been built across a variety of tracks, however, which is one reason the numbers are increasingly favorable to him.

The Italian has already won on street circuits, permanent circuits and high-speed venues. He has also demonstrated that he can recover from a significant setback — as Monza proved when a power-unit penalty forced him to start 19th.

GRANDE PRÊMIO has already examined why Antonelli’s Monza performance was much more than a simple consequence of Mercedes’ pace.

Madrid will therefore be an important first indication of whether Mercedes can maintain its advantage as the championship moves into a new phase.

The calendar favors a long title battle

After Madrid, the championship moves to Azerbaijan and Singapore before heading to the United States, Mexico and Brazil. Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi then close the season in November and December.

That creates a mixture of permanent and street circuits, different temperatures, different tyre demands and — crucially — the return of the Sprint format in Singapore. There is therefore plenty of room for the competitive picture to fluctuate.

But the burden is now on Antonelli’s rivals. Russell cannot simply match Antonelli’s results. He needs to outscore him. Hamilton needs to do it by an even larger margin.

And every race in which Antonelli finishes ahead of Russell makes the mathematical target more difficult.

So, can anyone still beat Antonelli?

Mathematically, absolutely.

Realistically, however, Antonelli has moved into a position that every championship leader wants with 10 races remaining: he can afford to lose individual battles without losing control of the war.

Russell is 66 points behind. Hamilton is 76 behind. There are 258 points available, so neither challenger is remotely eliminated. But both need Antonelli to surrender a significant portion of his advantage while producing an exceptional run themselves.

And that is before considering the psychological effect of Monza.

Antonelli started his home race 19th, recovered to the front and beat his team-mate in the final stages. He then watched Russell publicly concede that the title fight had become extremely difficult.

The next race in Madrid will not decide the championship. But it could tell us whether the rest of the field has found a way to make it a championship fight again.

For now, the answer is clear: Kimi Antonelli is not yet champion — but the 2026 F1 title is increasingly his to lose.

FAQ

How many points does Kimi Antonelli lead George Russell by in F1 2026?

Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points after the Italian GP, with 267 points to Russell’s 201.

Can George Russell still win the 2026 F1 championship?

Yes. Russell remains mathematically eligible to win the title because 10 Grands Prix and one Sprint remain. However, he needs to outscore Antonelli by at least 67 points over the remaining races.

When is the next 2026 F1 race?

The next race is the Spanish Grand Prix at Madrid’s new MADRING circuit from September 11-13, with the race scheduled for Sunday, September 13. It is Round 14 of the 2026 championship.