News Summary

Mercedes may have an 81-point lead at the top of the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, but Toto Wolff is refusing to treat Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s advantage as comfortable. The reason is not the performance of his 20-year-old driver. It is the reliability of the W17.

Antonelli strengthened his position by winning the Spanish GP in Madrid, his eighth victory from the opening 14 races of 2026. The result moved him to 292 points, with team-mate George Russell second on 211.

Mercedes nevertheless has plenty of evidence from this season that a substantial points advantage can disappear quickly when reliability intervenes.

“We’ve seen that the car and the power unit are a little fragile,” Wolff said. “So you have 1 or 2 DNFs and things look completely different.”

Mercedes’ concerns are based on more than hypothetical scenarios. Both drivers have already lost significant results because of technical failures during the first half of the season. Formula 1’s own analysis identified repeated reliability setbacks affecting the team’s potential points haul.

That is why Wolff is resisting any suggestion that Antonelli’s current advantage has effectively settled the championship.

“We need to keep our feet on the ground,” he said. “There are still many races to go.”

Toto Wolff says Mercedes cannot take Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s championship advantage for granted (Photo: Rodrigo Ruiz/Grande Prêmio)

Mercedes has already paid heavily for W17 reliability

The clearest example came at the Canadian GP.

Russell had started from pole and was fighting Antonelli at the front when his Mercedes stopped on lap 30. Technical director James Allison later explained that a battery suffered a catastrophic failure, ending a race in which Russell had been positioned to score heavily. Formula 1 estimated the retirement cost him a potential 25 points.

Antonelli then suffered his own costly failure at Barcelona-Catalunya. After climbing into second place late in the race, an electrical shutdown forced him to retire. He had been on course for 18 points.

Silverstone produced another setback. Antonelli was running competitively before a left-front wheel-shield failure forced additional pit stops and dropped him to 15th. Mercedes believed at least second place had been possible before the problem emerged.

Russell has also encountered a battery problem in Japan, a water leak and anti-stall issue in Hungary and deployment trouble in Belgium.

Wolff previously estimated that Mercedes had left between 50 and 100 points on the table because of reliability problems. Without those failures, he argued, its championship advantage could have been considerably larger.

That record explains why the Mercedes team principal is reluctant to extrapolate Antonelli’s current advantage across the remaining races.

Antonelli’s title advantage grows despite Mercedes problems

The reliability issues have not prevented Antonelli from establishing himself as the benchmark of the 2026 season.

The Italian has won 8 Grands Prix and now holds an 81-point advantage over Russell, who entered the year as Mercedes’ more experienced driver and one of the leading championship contenders.

The gap has become particularly significant after Madrid. Antonelli led Mercedes in FP2 and FP3 before winning the Spanish GP, while Russell finished fifth.

As GRANDE PRÊMIO analysed after Madrid, Russell has won only twice this season and Wolff acknowledged that the Briton has been “taking a beating” during Antonelli’s run of results.

Mercedes, however, continues to separate the championship arithmetic from the way it manages its young driver.

The team is actively trying to prevent the increasing title discussion from changing Antonelli’s approach. Wolff believes Antonelli’s ability to compartmentalise the championship pressure has been an important part of his season.

Antonelli’s own demanding approach remains another element Mercedes is managing. The team has said the 20-year-old can sometimes be excessively self-critical even while producing championship-leading results, something Mercedes wants him to control as his development continues.

Reliability remains Mercedes’ concern

Mercedes has already taken measures intended to improve reliability.

Antonelli received a completely new power unit at Monza, accepting the resulting grid penalty. Despite having the opportunity to introduce an ADUO performance upgrade, Mercedes instead prioritised reliability and cooling changes in the specification fitted to his car. Antonelli subsequently recovered from 19th on the grid to win the Italian GP.

Mercedes has also had to balance reliability work against its development resources. Ferrari and McLaren have introduced upgrades as the season has progressed, while the W17 has received fewer major developments since Canada.

Antonelli nevertheless arrives at the next round with 292 points, Russell has 211, and Lewis Hamilton remains third in the championship.

Formula 1 now heads to Baku for the Azerbaijan GP, with Mercedes looking to protect its championship position while avoiding the reliability setbacks that have already affected both drivers in 2026.

FAQ

When is the next F1 race?

The next Formula 1 race is the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, with the weekend running from Thursday, September 24 to Saturday, September 26. Unlike a conventional F1 weekend, the race takes place on Saturday.

Why is the 2026 Azerbaijan GP on Saturday?

The Azerbaijan GP takes place on Saturday, September 26, because Sunday, September 27 is Azerbaijan’s Remembrance Day. The entire weekend has moved forward: FP1 and FP2 are on Thursday, while FP3 and qualifying take place on Friday.

What time does the 2026 Azerbaijan GP start?

The Azerbaijan GP starts at 15:00 local time in Baku and 12:00 UK time on Saturday, September 26. Qualifying begins at 16:00 local time and 13:00 UK on Friday.