Summary
- Martín leads the championship with 313 points, seven ahead of Márquez.
- Márquez takes the lead if he wins and Martín finishes third or lower.
- A seven-point gain would also be enough: Márquez holds the advantage on the race-win tiebreak.
Marc Márquez can take the MotoGP championship lead in Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix, but winning alone would not guarantee it. The Ducati rider needs to recover at least seven points against Jorge Martín at Motegi.
Saturday’s Sprint victory reduced his deficit from 12 points to seven. Martín now has 313 points and Márquez 306, leaving the championship lead within reach before the main race on Sunday, 4 October.
The simplest route is a victory for Márquez with Martín finishing third or lower. However, the MotoGP scoring system also leaves several other combinations that would put Márquez first in the standings.
What happens if Márquez wins in Japan?
A Sunday victory awards 25 points, while second place brings 20 and third earns 16.
If Márquez wins and Martín finishes second, Márquez gains only five points. Their totals would become 331 for Márquez and 333 for Martín, keeping the Aprilia rider ahead by two.
If Márquez wins and Martín finishes third, the nine-point swing reverses their positions: Márquez would lead with 331 points against Martín’s 329.
Martín can therefore protect his championship lead by finishing first or second, regardless of Márquez’s result.
Every result that would put Márquez ahead
The following scenarios assume full championship points are awarded and the finishing positions remain unchanged after any penalties.
| Márquez’s finish | Points earned | Martín must finish |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 25 | 3rd or lower |
| 2nd | 20 | 4th or lower |
| 3rd | 16 | 7th or lower |
| 4th | 13 | 10th or lower |
| 5th | 11 | 12th or lower |
| 6th | 10 | 13th or lower |
| 7th | 9 | 14th or lower |
| 8th | 8 | 15th or lower |
| 9th | 7 | Outside the points |
| 10th or lower | 6 or fewer | Cannot take the lead |
Márquez does not need to finish on the podium to become championship leader. If Martín fails to score, ninth place would give Márquez the seven points needed to draw level and move ahead on countback.
By contrast, tenth place would bring only six points. Even with Martín scoring nothing, Márquez would remain one point behind.
Why a seven-point gain is enough
An exact seven-point swing would leave the two riders tied. Márquez would take first place in the standings because he has more Sunday grand prix victories this season: five against Martín’s one.
For example, second place for Márquez and fourth for Martín would put both on 326 points. Márquez would then hold the championship lead on the race-win tiebreak.
Sprint victories contribute points to the championship, but they do not count towards that tiebreak. Saturday’s win helped Márquez close the gap; his Sunday victories provide the countback advantage.
The lead is at stake, not the championship itself
These calculations concern who leaves Motegi at the top of the standings. Neither rider can clinch the world title in Japan, with further rounds still to come.
For Martín, finishing in the top two guarantees that he retains the lead. For Márquez, the target is to finish far enough ahead of his rival to overturn the seven-point deficit.
MotoGP continues this weekend, from 2–4 October, in Japan. GRANDE PRÊMIO will cover all the action at Motegi.
MotoGP today: FAQ
What time does the Japanese MotoGP race start?
The race starts on Sunday, 4 October, at 14:00 JST: 06:00 BST in the UK, 01:00 EDT in eastern US and Canada, 10:30 IST in India and 16:00 AEDT in Sydney and Melbourne. In Los Angeles and Vancouver, it begins at 22:00 PDT on Saturday, 3 October.
Can Marc Márquez take the MotoGP championship lead in Japan?
Yes. Márquez trails Jorge Martín by seven points after winning Saturday’s Sprint. If Márquez wins Sunday’s race and Martín finishes third or lower, Márquez takes the lead. Second place for Márquez and fourth for Martín would also be enough: they would draw level on points, with Márquez ahead on the Grand Prix victory tiebreak.
Why has Michelin withdrawn the soft rear tyre at Motegi?
Michelin withdrew the soft rear tyre after problems during Saturday’s Sprint, including those affecting Jorge Martín and Francesco Bagnaia. The medium and hard options remain available, but Michelin recommends the hard and has warned that the medium still carries risks.
How far behind Jorge Martín is Marc Márquez?
Márquez trails Martín by seven points after the Japanese Grand Prix Sprint.
