{"id":4860,"date":"2026-11-02T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/?p=4860"},"modified":"2026-11-02T11:04:31","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T14:04:31","slug":"mexican-gp-race-pace-analysis-verstappen-proves-win-was-no-gift-as-ferrari-matches-red-bull","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/f1\/mexican-gp-race-pace-analysis-verstappen-proves-win-was-no-gift-as-ferrari-matches-red-bull\/","title":{"rendered":"Mexican GP race pace analysis: Verstappen proves win was no gift as Ferrari matches Red Bull"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">News Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Max Verstappen recorded the fastest average race pace at the 2026 Mexican Grand Prix<\/strong>, just 0.061s per lap ahead of Lewis Hamilton, according to Formula Data Analysis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Andrea Kimi Antonelli was the fourth-fastest driver and outpaced Mercedes teammate George Russell by 0.176s per lap<\/strong>, reinforcing the strength of his championship-winning campaign.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The data suggests Red Bull and Ferrari have narrowed Mercedes&#8217; competitive advantage<\/strong>, while McLaren continues to struggle despite using the same power unit as the championship-winning team.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ferrari may have opened the door for Max Verstappen to win the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix, but <strong>the race-pace data suggests the Red Bull driver did considerably more than simply benefit from Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc&#8217;s opening-lap confrontation<\/strong>. Verstappen recorded the fastest average lap time of the race, narrowly beating Hamilton in a performance that also raises questions about the competitive balance heading into Formula 1&#8217;s final rounds and the 2027 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verstappen averaged <strong>1:20.654<\/strong>, compared with Hamilton&#8217;s 1:20.715. The difference of just 0.061s per lap illustrates how closely matched Red Bull and Ferrari were throughout the Mexican Grand Prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Verstappen had the pace to turn Ferrari&#8217;s mistake into victory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The opening lap at the Aut\u00f3dromo Hermanos Rodr\u00edguez has already generated considerable controversy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hamilton started from pole, but his battle with Leclerc through the opening corners compromised Ferrari&#8217;s opportunity to control the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Leclerc eventually received a five-second penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage, while Verstappen capitalised on the confrontation to move into contention for the lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/f1\/hamilton-blames-leclerc-incident-and-fia-penalty-decision-for-lost-mexican-gp-victory\/\">Hamilton subsequently accused Leclerc of costing Ferrari victory<\/a>, and team principal Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Vasseur described the missed opportunity as unacceptable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the pace analysis adds an important dimension to that argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Verstappen was the fastest driver on average, even if only marginally ahead of Hamilton.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dutchman combined an aggressive opening lap with effective strategy and strong execution during a race interrupted by Safety Cars and a red flag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His victory margin of just 0.799s over Hamilton demonstrates how little separated the leading contenders at the finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It does not prove Verstappen would have won without the Ferrari incident. Race position, tyre management, traffic and the timing of the interruptions could all have produced a different outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the data challenges the suggestion that Red Bull simply inherited a victory it lacked the performance to achieve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"F1 2026, M\u00c9XICO, CIDADE DO M\u00c9XICO, CORRIDA, RED BULL RACING, MAX VERSTAPPEN, FERRARI, LEWIS HAMILTON, MERCEDES, KIMI ANTONELLI\" class=\"wp-image-1020320061\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f1-2026-mexico-cidade-do-mexico-corrida-red-bull-max-verstappen-ferrari-lewis-hamilton-mercedes-kimi-antonelli-01-150x100.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli (Photo: Red Bull Content Pool)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ferrari&#8217;s pace makes missed opportunity even more painful<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hamilton&#8217;s performance was particularly encouraging for Ferrari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seven-time champion had already demonstrated the SF-26&#8217;s qualifying potential by securing pole position, ending a 1,197-day drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His race pace then confirmed that Ferrari&#8217;s competitiveness was not limited to a single flying lap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hamilton was just 0.061s per lap slower than Verstappen<\/strong>, while Leclerc ranked third with an average of 1:20.869, 0.215s behind the Red Bull driver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two Ferrari drivers therefore appeared among the three fastest competitors in the race-pace ranking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That makes the team&#8217;s failure to win particularly frustrating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Leclerc&#8217;s final stint on soft tyres was also compromised by a lock-up after the red flag, contributing to slower lap times during the closing phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Monegasque eventually finished fourth, while Hamilton recovered to second.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/f1\/hamilton-accuses-ferrari-teammate-leclerc-of-pushing-him-off-track-at-mexican-gp-start\/\">Leclerc acknowledged that his five-second penalty was deserved<\/a>, although he argued that both Ferrari drivers had made mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pace figures strengthen the argument that Ferrari had a genuine opportunity to win, but they do not establish that a one-two finish was guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Antonelli&#8217;s championship was built on more than Mercedes superiority<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Andrea Kimi Antonelli&#8217;s third place secured the 2026 Drivers&#8217; World Championship, making the Italian Formula 1&#8217;s youngest champion at 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The race-pace figures also highlight his individual contribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Antonelli averaged <strong>1:20.963<\/strong>, placing him fourth overall and 0.176s per lap ahead of teammate Russell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russell&#8217;s average of 1:21.140 ranked fifth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The difference is particularly relevant because Mercedes&#8217; competitive advantage has not been equally evident at every circuit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Antonelli has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to extract performance under pressure, and Mexico offered another example of his consistency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/f1\/antonelli-becomes-youngest-f1-world-champion-as-verstappen-wins-chaotic-2026-mexican-gp\/\">The Italian secured the championship after finishing third behind Verstappen and Hamilton<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His campaign has combined outright speed with race management, consistency and the ability to capitalise when rivals encountered difficulties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mercedes provided a championship-winning platform, but Antonelli&#8217;s superiority over Russell in Mexico suggests that the driver&#8217;s contribution should not be overlooked.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mercedes may no longer have the fastest car<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps the most significant implication of the Mexican Grand Prix concerns the competitive order heading into 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mercedes has dominated much of the 2026 championship, benefiting from a strong interpretation of the new technical regulations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the race-pace ranking places both Red Bull and Ferrari ahead of its drivers in Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verstappen was 0.310s per lap faster than Antonelli, while Hamilton was 0.249s ahead of the new champion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These differences suggest that <strong>Mercedes&#8217; early-season performance advantage may have narrowed considerably<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Red Bull&#8217;s recovery has been especially notable, with Verstappen increasingly competitive as the team has addressed weaknesses that compromised its earlier races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ferrari has also made progress, although questions remain about its power unit performance and the impact of regulatory changes during the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The evidence from Mexico does not establish that Mercedes has permanently lost its advantage. Circuit characteristics, tyre choices and race circumstances can significantly affect comparisons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nevertheless, the German team can celebrate its 2026 Drivers&#8217; Championship while recognising that its rivals appear better positioned to challenge next year than they did earlier in the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">McLaren&#8217;s decline raises questions beyond the Mercedes engine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">McLaren&#8217;s performance provides another revealing comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The British team entered 2026 following its success in the previous championship cycle, but has struggled to match Mercedes despite using the same power unit supplier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Mexico, Norris averaged <strong>1:21.206<\/strong>, placing him sixth in the race-pace ranking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Piastri was considerably further behind at 1:21.646, almost one second per lap slower than Verstappen in the analysed sample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The difference between McLaren and Mercedes suggests that the power unit alone cannot explain their contrasting performances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chassis efficiency, aerodynamic development, tyre management and transmission characteristics all influence race pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One possible contributing factor is McLaren&#8217;s gearing configuration, which may have affected how effectively the car exploited its available power at certain circuits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, <strong>the race-pace chart cannot establish whether gearing was responsible for the deficit<\/strong>, and that explanation requires additional technical evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What the data does show is that McLaren was unable to match the average pace of either Mercedes driver in Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The team&#8217;s decline has been one of the major developments of the 2026 season, with Red Bull now ahead in the Constructors&#8217; Championship following the Mexican Grand Prix and subsequent penalties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mexico offers a warning for the 2027 championship<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2026 Drivers&#8217; Championship has already been decided, but the Mexican Grand Prix offered a glimpse of a potentially different competitive landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verstappen&#8217;s victory demonstrated Red Bull&#8217;s capacity to challenge at the front. Ferrari&#8217;s pace showed that the SF-26 has developed into a genuine contender for race wins, even if execution remains a problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mercedes, meanwhile, secured the title through Antonelli&#8217;s remarkable consistency and speed, but its advantage over the opposition appears less comfortable than earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">McLaren faces perhaps the most difficult task, needing to recover performance against both the leading manufacturers and its own power unit supplier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The central lesson from Mexico is that Mercedes may have won the championship before its rivals completed their recovery.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not diminish Antonelli&#8217;s achievement. It makes his ability to build a decisive advantage during the most favourable phase of the season even more significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And it leaves an intriguing question for 2027: if Verstappen, Hamilton and Antonelli begin the next championship with machinery as closely matched as their Mexican Grand Prix race pace suggests, the fight could look very different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>GRANDE PR\u00caMIO<\/strong> is following the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship with breaking news, full coverage and real-time updates in its <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/f1\/\">Formula 1 section<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Max Verstappen led the Mexican Grand Prix race-pace rankings by just 0.061s over Lewis Hamilton, while Andrea Kimi Antonelli outpaced George Russell and Mercedes showed signs that its 2026 advantage is narrowing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1020320123,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"42wp_featured_image_caption":"Max Verstappen","42wp_featured_image_credits":"Red Bull Content Pool","42wp_featured_video":"","42wp_ai_content_disclaimer":"","42wp_is_ai_content":false,"42wp_featured_image_hidden":false,"42wp_authors_list":[{"id":7,"location":""}],"footnotes":"","42wp_hide_from_automatic":false,"42wp_breaking_news":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[19,649,63,64],"42wp_author":[7],"class_list":["post-4860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-f1","tag-andrea-kimi-antonelli","tag-f1-analysis","tag-lewis-hamilton","tag-max-verstappen","42wp_author-victor-martins"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4860"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4860\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4861,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4860\/revisions\/4861"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1020320123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4860"},{"taxonomy":"42wp_author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/grandepremio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/42wp_author?post=4860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}