News Summary
- Mercedes leads the projected Baku qualifying pace, but only by 0.25s over McLaren
- Red Bull and Ferrari are also within 0.42s of the benchmark
- Racing Bulls emerges as the fifth-fastest team, ahead of Alpine, Audi and Haas
Mercedes may not possess the overwhelming Azerbaijan GP advantage suggested by the FP2 classification.
George Russell finished Thursday’s second practice 1.484s ahead of Lando Norris, with Max Verstappen 0.827s behind and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc 1.126s away. However, Formula 1’s qualifying-pace simulation produces a much closer picture.
According to the data collected and adjusted by F1.com, Mercedes remains the fastest team over a qualifying lap—but its projected advantage over McLaren is only 0.25s.
Red Bull follows at 0.31s, while Ferrari is 0.42s behind. The model therefore points to a potential four-team battle for pole position rather than a comfortable Mercedes advantage.
Baku qualifying-pace simulation
| Pos. | Team | Projected gap |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | Benchmark |
| 2 | McLaren | +0.25s |
| 3 | Red Bull | +0.31s |
| 4 | Ferrari | +0.42s |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | +1.21s |
| 6 | Alpine | +1.43s |
| 7 | Audi | +1.50s |
| 8 | Haas | +1.74s |
| 9 | Williams | +2.15s |
| 10 | Cadillac | +2.51s |
| 11 | Aston Martin | +2.75s |
The figures are based on the performance patterns recorded during Thursday practice and are intended to estimate each team’s representative one-lap potential. They are not predicted qualifying results, as fuel loads, tyre preparation, engine deployment, traffic and driver execution remain unknown.
Why McLaren’s deficit may be misleading
Norris described McLaren’s 1.5-second FP2 deficit as “pretty pants” and admitted that seeing the timing screen felt like “a little knife in the heart”.
The simulation suggests that McLaren’s alarming FP2 result did not reveal its complete qualifying potential. Its adjusted deficit falls from 1.484s to 0.25s, a reduction of more than 1.2s.
Several factors could explain that difference. Teams can use different fuel quantities, power-unit settings and tyre-preparation programmes during practice. A driver may also abandon or compromise a lap without the final classification showing how much time was available.
McLaren introduced a significant aerodynamic package in Baku and is still learning how to maximise it. Norris also said that the car did not feel particularly poor, despite its apparent lack of pace.
The simulation does not make McLaren the favourite, but it suggests Norris and Oscar Piastri should remain genuine pole contenders.
Red Bull and Ferrari remain inside the pole fight
Red Bull’s projected deficit is only 0.31s, substantially smaller than Verstappen’s actual 0.827s FP2 margin. The reigning Baku winner therefore remains close enough to challenge Mercedes if the team extracts more performance on Friday.
Ferrari is estimated to be 0.42s behind. Leclerc has historically performed strongly over one lap in Baku, while Hamilton finished fifth on Thursday despite receiving a reprimand for severely impeding Liam Lawson.
The four leading teams are separated by less than half a second in the projection. With wind gusts expected to approach 65km/h, driver confidence and lap execution could become as important as the underlying car performance.
Racing Bulls leads the midfield
Racing Bulls ranks fifth in the simulation, 1.21s behind Mercedes but 0.22s ahead of Alpine. That supports the pace shown by Liam Lawson, who finished seventh in FP1 after returning from his three-race Red Bull spell.
The New Zealander has already strengthened his position in the fight for a 2027 seat, and Baku begins the decisive phase of his Racing Bulls campaign.
Audi ranks seventh at 1.50s despite introducing its first substantial upgrade since June. Williams is only ninth, while Cadillac sits tenth.
Aston Martin remains last, 2.75s away from the projected benchmark. That figure reflects its severe straight-line deficit: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll were slower through the speed measurement than every Formula 2 driver on Thursday.
The final competitive order will become clearer during FP3, which begins at 09:30 UK time. Azerbaijan GP qualifying starts at 13:00.
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F1 today: FAQ
Why is the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Saturday?
The race takes place on Saturday, September 26, because Sunday is Azerbaijan’s Remembrance Day. The entire programme was moved forward, with practice on Thursday and qualifying on Friday.
What time does the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix start?
The Azerbaijan GP starts at 12:00 UK, 07:00 ET and 15:00 local time on Saturday. It will run for 51 laps around the 6.003km Baku City Circuit.
Can Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 championship in Azerbaijan?
Yes. Antonelli arrives in Baku with an 81-point lead over George Russell, making him mathematically capable of securing the championship. To become champion, he must leave Azerbaijan at least 75 points ahead.
Which team has the fastest projected qualifying pace in Baku?
Mercedes leads the simulation, but its advantage over McLaren is estimated at only 0.25s.
