Toto Wolff believes Kimi Antonelli’s chances of winning the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship are approaching 100%, but the Mercedes team principal warned that mechanical failures and accidents could still disrupt the Italian’s title campaign following the Singapore Grand Prix on Sunday (11 October).
Antonelli finished third at Marina Bay behind Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, while teammate George Russell recovered from 19th on the grid to finish ninth. The result extended Antonelli’s championship advantage to 102 points, giving the 20-year-old an opportunity to secure his first world title at the United States Grand Prix in Austin.
Speaking to Sky Sports F1 after the race, Wolff acknowledged the significance of the championship lead but insisted Mercedes should continue approaching each Grand Prix individually rather than assuming the title is already secured.
“Yeah, like we said today, you know, before the race, it’s about scoring points. We didn’t expect to be ahead of Lewis, because they were fast. So coming in and scoring more points than him is good,” Wolff said, referring to Lewis Hamilton.
“And you look at the numbers and, you know, you ask AI, what’s the probability of him winning? And it’s probably almost 100%. But it is motor racing, you can break down, you can have accidents.”
The Mercedes boss stressed that Antonelli’s substantial advantage does not eliminate the uncertainties of racing, particularly with several rounds still remaining.
“And then things could start to stress. So I think we need to look at it race by race, make sure that we continue to score the points and eventually, hopefully, it’s going to come towards him.”
Wolff’s assessment comes after Antonelli increased his championship lead with another podium in Singapore, putting himself in a position to potentially become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history.
Mercedes finally sees progress from troubled upgrade package
Beyond the championship implications, Wolff was encouraged by the performance of Mercedes’ latest aerodynamic developments.
The team had experienced difficulties with the package introduced at Sepang, where both drivers struggled to extract consistent performance. Mercedes subsequently decided to compare different configurations in Singapore, with Antonelli retaining the updated specification while Russell returned to an earlier version.
Antonelli’s third-place finish provided Mercedes with its clearest indication that the revised package could deliver competitive performance, although the team remains behind Red Bull and Ferrari on outright pace.
“Yeah, it was a difficult race. And with the whole update issue, I think finally we saw what the car is able to do,” Wolff explained.
“Obviously, when you’re fourth on the road, it’s quite difficult to recover here in Singapore. But I’m happy what he did today. I’m happy about the result.”
Antonelli had started fourth and spent part of the race behind Hamilton and Lando Norris before passing both drivers during the closing stages.
The Italian subsequently admitted that Verstappen’s recent resurgence would be frightening if the Red Bull driver were closer in the championship, while also expressing confidence that Mercedes was beginning to understand its new aerodynamic package.
His assessment was consistent with Wolff’s comments. Despite the difficulties encountered in Malaysia and Singapore, Mercedes believes it has made progress in identifying how to extract performance from the updated W17.
Wolff highlights Singapore’s overtaking difficulties after Russell recovery
Wolff also praised Russell’s recovery from the back of the grid, although the British driver’s result was limited by the difficulty of overtaking at Marina Bay.
Russell had qualified sixth but was forced to start 19th following extensive power-unit component changes. He eventually finished ninth, scoring two points after a race in which track position and the timing of the Virtual Safety Car restricted his opportunities.
Wolff argued that overtaking at Singapore can remain extremely difficult even when a following car has a substantial pace advantage.
“Yeah, it’s so difficult to overtake. I mean, he pulled off some really great moves. But then at the end, it’s just converging with the performance. And even a car that is a second or second and a half off the pace, you just can’t overtake.”
Russell’s result followed a challenging sequence of races, including his retirement at Sepang and the penalties incurred in Singapore. The British driver subsequently revealed that Mercedes could delay another engine penalty until Las Vegas, allowing the team to choose a circuit where recovering positions might be easier.
The contrasting fortunes of Mercedes’ drivers have significantly affected the championship battle. Antonelli has continued scoring heavily, while Russell’s recent setbacks have increased the gap between them.
Antonelli approaches first opportunity to secure F1 championship
With 340 points against Russell’s 238, Antonelli enters the final stages of the season in a commanding position. Hamilton remains third in the standings, while Verstappen’s consecutive victories in Malaysia and Singapore have lifted the Red Bull driver to fourth.
The Italian can mathematically secure the championship at Austin, although he will need a sufficiently large advantage over every remaining contender after the race.
As GRANDE PRÊMIO explained in its championship analysis, the outcome will depend not only on Antonelli’s performance but also on the points scored by Russell and his other mathematical rivals.
Wolff’s comments also come amid Red Bull’s return to winning form under Laurent Mekies, with Verstappen dominating two consecutive weekends at circuits with contrasting characteristics.
Mercedes therefore faces two separate objectives: maintaining the consistency that has placed Antonelli close to the Drivers’ Championship and continuing to improve its car after Red Bull’s recent gains.
Formula 1 returns for the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas on October 23–25. GRANDE PRÊMIO continues its Formula 1 coverage as Antonelli approaches his first opportunity to secure the world title.
