Best title for Discover: Antonelli could win the F1 title in Austin after Russell’s costly Sepang retirement
Best title for Search: When can Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 championship?
Suggested publication: 4 October, 1pm Brasília time (BRT), after the Norris decision at 12:30pm.
When can Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 championship?
Kimi Antonelli’s 84-point advantage makes the United States Grand Prix his earliest opportunity to become champion, but the calculation must also account for Lewis Hamilton.
News Summary
- Antonelli could clinch the championship in Austin on 25 October, depending on the next two rounds.
- He cannot secure the title in Singapore, even by winning both the Sprint and Grand Prix.
- Seven Grands Prix and one Sprint remain, offering a maximum of 183 points.
Kimi Antonelli could become Formula 1 world champion as early as the United States Grand Prix on 25 October. His second place in the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, combined with George Russell’s retirement, increased his championship advantage to 84 points.
Antonelli leaves Sepang with 320 points, followed by Russell on 236 and Lewis Hamilton on 214. Charles Leclerc has 191, while Lando Norris and Max Verstappen each have 188.
There are 183 points still available: 175 across seven Grands Prix and eight from the Singapore Sprint. That leaves five drivers mathematically capable of catching Antonelli, although their opportunities depend increasingly on the championship leader losing ground.
The updated championship standings after Sepang show the immediate consequence of Russell’s failure: Antonelli added 18 points while his closest rival scored none.
Can Antonelli become champion in Singapore?
No. Singapore cannot decide the drivers’ championship in Antonelli’s favour.
Even if he wins both the Sprint and Grand Prix, he would add 33 points and reach 353. If Russell scores nothing, the gap between them would become 117 points.
Six Grands Prix would still remain after Singapore, offering 150 points. Russell would therefore retain a mathematical route to the title.
Singapore can nevertheless bring Antonelli significantly closer. It is the final Sprint weekend of the season and the last opportunity to collect more than 25 points at a single round.
How could Antonelli win the title in Austin?
After the United States Grand Prix, five races would remain, worth 125 points. A lead of at least 126 points over every remaining contender would guarantee Antonelli the championship without requiring a tie-break calculation.
One possible route starts with Antonelli winning the Singapore Sprint, Singapore Grand Prix and United States Grand Prix. Those results would add 58 points, taking him to 378.
In that scenario, he would be guaranteed the title in Austin if:
- Russell scores no more than 16 points across those three scoring events, leaving him on a maximum of 252.
- Hamilton scores no more than 38 points, also leaving him on a maximum of 252.
Leclerc, Norris and Verstappen could not prevent Antonelli becoming champion under that scenario, even by finishing second in all three events.
Hamilton matters to the calculation. If he takes second place in the Singapore Sprint and both Grands Prix, he would collect 43 points and reach 257. His deficit to Antonelli would then be 121 points, keeping him mathematically in contention after Austin.
This is one sufficient scenario, rather than the only combination that could decide the championship. The precise permutations will change with the Singapore results. A gap of exactly 125 points after Austin would require checking the countback rules.
How many points remain after each race?
| Round | Grand Prix date | Maximum points available at the round | Points remaining afterwards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 11 October | 33, including the Sprint | 150 |
| United States | 25 October | 25 | 125 |
| Mexico City | 1 November | 25 | 100 |
| São Paulo | 8 November | 25 | 75 |
| Las Vegas | 21 November | 25 | 50 |
| Qatar | 29 November | 25 | 25 |
| Abu Dhabi | 6 December | 25 | 0 |
Calculations assume the remaining events award full points and the calendar remains unchanged.
How many more points would guarantee Antonelli the title?
Another 100 points would guarantee Antonelli the championship, regardless of his rivals’ results.
That would take him to 420 points. Russell, currently his closest challenger, could reach a maximum of 419 by collecting all 183 points still available.
Antonelli may need fewer than 100 additional points if Russell and the other contenders drop points. The championship is decided once none of them can overtake him, including any applicable countback.
Formula 1 returns from 9–11 October for the Singapore Grand Prix, featuring a Sprint weekend. GRANDE PRÊMIO will cover all the action at Marina Bay.
