News Summary
- Mercedes has 607 points after Austin, leading Ferrari by 133 with five Grands Prix remaining.
- Mercedes must outscore Ferrari by at least 39 points at the Mexican Grand Prix to secure the Constructors’ Championship.
- An Andrea Kimi Antonelli–George Russell one-two finish would be enough if Ferrari scores no more than four points.
Mercedes arrives at the 2026 Mexican Grand Prix with its first opportunity to secure the Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship, but Ferrari still has a mathematical chance of delaying the German manufacturer’s title celebrations.
The Silver Arrows lead with 607 points after Andrea Kimi Antonelli won the United States Grand Prix, while Ferrari has accumulated 474. That leaves a 133-point advantage with five races remaining in the season.
Why Mercedes can become champion in Mexico
A maximum of 43 points is available to a constructor at each remaining Grand Prix, with 25 awarded for victory and 18 for second place.
After Mexico, four races will remain, offering a maximum of 172 points.
Mercedes therefore needs to leave Mexico at least 172 points ahead of Ferrari while retaining an unassailable advantage on the championship’s countback rules.
Because Mercedes already holds a decisive advantage in race victories, matching Ferrari’s maximum remaining points would still be sufficient to secure the title.
That means Mercedes must extend its current 133-point lead by at least 39 points in Mexico City.
Mercedes’ championship-clinching scenarios
| Mercedes result | Mercedes points in Mexico | Ferrari’s maximum score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st and 2nd | 43 | 4 |
| 1st and 3rd | 40 | 1 |
A first-and-fourth finish would earn Mercedes 37 points, which would not be sufficient to produce the required swing even if Ferrari failed to score.
F1 2026 Constructors’ Championship after the United States GP
| Pos. | Team | Points | Gap to Mercedes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 607 | — |
| 2 | Ferrari | 474 | -133 |
| 3 | Red Bull Racing | 355 | -252 |
| 4 | McLaren | 355 | -252 |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 102 | -505 |
| 6 | Alpine | 69 | -538 |
| 7 | Haas | 30 | -577 |
| 8 | Audi | 23 | -584 |
| 9 | Williams | 12 | -595 |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 7 | -600 |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 | -607 |
Standings: Formula 1 official classification after Austin, October 25.
Ferrari remains the only mathematical challenger
Ferrari is the only constructor still within reach of Mercedes.
Red Bull Racing and McLaren are both on 355 points, more than the maximum 215 points available to a team across the final five races behind Mercedes.
Ferrari’s position is stronger, but the Italian team would need a particularly favourable series of results to overcome Mercedes before the season ends.
Even if the title is not decided in Mexico, Mercedes will retain a strong advantage heading into the São Paulo Grand Prix.
Antonelli could also secure the Drivers’ Championship
Mercedes has another opportunity in Mexico City because Andrea Kimi Antonelli could clinch the Drivers’ Championship.
The Italian leads teammate George Russell by 123 points after his Austin victory, while Lewis Hamilton remains the other mathematical challenger.
The Drivers’ Championship calculation differs from the Constructors’ battle because each driver’s individual points determine the standings.
The complete Mexico title scenarios for Antonelli explain why the Mercedes driver has a much more straightforward opportunity to clinch his title than the team does to secure the Constructors’ Championship.
When is the Mexican Grand Prix?
The 2026 Mexican Grand Prix takes place on Sunday, November 1, at 14:00 local time, equivalent to 20:00 GMT, 15:00 EST and 17:00 BRT.
GRANDE PRÊMIO is following every session of the Mexican Grand Prix this weekend, with breaking news, full coverage and real-time updates in its Formula 1 section.
FAQ
Can Mercedes win the 2026 Constructors’ Championship in Mexico?
Yes, but it must outscore Ferrari by at least 39 points.
What results does Mercedes need?
A first-and-second finish with Ferrari scoring no more than four points, or first and third with Ferrari scoring no more than one.
How many races remain after Mexico?
Four Grands Prix will remain, with 172 Constructors’ Championship points available.
Tags: Mercedes, Ferrari, Mexican GP, F1 2026
Slug: when-can-mercedes-win-the-2026-f1-constructors-championship-ferrari-holds-the-key
