Álex Palou has already secured his fifth IndyCar championship, but the title fight is far from the only reason to watch the Grand Prix of Monterey on Sunday.

The battle for second place in the 2026 standings enters the final race with four drivers still mathematically capable of finishing as championship runner-up: Christian Lundgaard, Kyle Kirkwood, Pato O’Ward and David Malukas.

And the margins could hardly be smaller at the top.

Lundgaard arrives at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca with 507 points, just two ahead of Kirkwood on 505 and four ahead of O’Ward on 503. Malukas sits fifth with 484, meaning he is 23 points behind Lundgaard with one race remaining.

The official IndyCar preview also identifies the quartet as the four drivers still in contention for second, with Malukas facing the toughest mathematical task.

Lundgaard has the advantage — but not much

Lundgaard starts the finale in the strongest position in the championship standings, but his advantage is small enough that virtually every position gained or lost on Sunday could matter.

The Dane has enjoyed one of the strongest stretches of his 2026 campaign. He arrives after finishing third and sixth in the Milwaukee doubleheader, including his first podium on an oval, results that moved him into second place in the championship.

There is an additional layer to Lundgaard’s fight.

The 2026 season is his final campaign with Arrow McLaren, with the team having chosen to move forward with Pato O’Ward, Scott Dixon and Felix Rosenqvist in 2027. Lundgaard has already signed with Chip Ganassi Racing for next season, but finishing as McLaren’s top championship scorer would provide a particularly strong conclusion to his tenure with the team.

His six-place grid penalty for an unapproved engine change, however, means Lundgaard starts 11th at Laguna Seca rather than fifth, where he qualified.

That makes his championship advantage considerably more fragile.

Kirkwood is only two points behind

Kirkwood enters the finale second in the championship race, just two points behind Lundgaard.

The Andretti Global driver has two victories in 2026 and has been one of the most consistent contenders in the second half of the season. He also has strong recent form at Laguna Seca, where the combination of road-course pace and a potentially chaotic finale could work in his favor.

Kirkwood’s qualifying result adds another advantage. After the penalties were applied, he moves up the grid and starts sixth, putting him five positions ahead of Lundgaard.

That means Kirkwood begins the race with both a points deficit of only two and a substantial track-position advantage.

The downside is that the American needs to avoid another difficult finale after a frustrating Milwaukee weekend. He finished 15th in one race and sixth in the other, allowing Lundgaard to jump ahead of him in the standings.

O’Ward arrives with momentum

If anyone has the momentum to overturn the standings, it is Pato O’Ward.

The Mexican entered the Milwaukee weekend 63 points behind second place. He then won both races of the doubleheader, becoming the first IndyCar driver since Rick Mears in 1981 to win two races on the same day. The result catapulted O’Ward to within four points of Lundgaard.

O’Ward has three wins this season, compared with two apiece for Lundgaard and Kirkwood. He also finished runner-up to Palou in the 2025 standings, meaning another second-place finish would give him consecutive runner-up campaigns.

But his starting position is not ideal.

O’Ward qualified 13th in the raw session classification and, after the grid adjustments, starts 12th. That puts him one position behind Lundgaard and six behind Kirkwood — although his recent form suggests he cannot be discounted.

The fight is also particularly intriguing because O’Ward and Lundgaard have been involved in a public dispute over the way Arrow McLaren operates its oval program. O’Ward denied Lundgaard’s claims of favoritism and sharply rejected his former teammate’s assessment of the team’s approach.

A runner-up finish for O’Ward would therefore be another way of putting an emphatic stamp on a weekend that completely changed the championship picture.

Malukas needs the biggest comeback

Malukas is the outsider, but calling his chances impossible would be incorrect.

The Team Penske driver has 484 points, 19 behind O’Ward, 21 behind Kirkwood and 23 behind Lundgaard.

With a maximum of 54 points available in the finale, Malukas can theoretically finish as runner-up.

The problem is that he needs to overcome all three drivers ahead of him rather than just one.

Malukas has nevertheless been one of the strongest drivers at the sharp end of the field without a victory this season. He has six career runner-up finishes, including second place in the first Milwaukee race, and added fourth in the second race.

He also starts fifth at Laguna Seca, putting him ahead of all three direct rivals after the grid penalties are taken into account.

That could be crucial.

What does Malukas need?

The IndyCar scoring system makes the mathematics particularly interesting.

A race win awards 50 points, while a driver can gain additional points for pole position and leading laps. The maximum score in a standard race is therefore 54 points.

Malukas would need a near-perfect afternoon.

If he takes the maximum 54 points, he would reach 538 points. That means Lundgaard could score no more than 30 points, Kirkwood no more than 32 and O’Ward no more than 34 for Malukas to finish ahead of all three, assuming the relevant championship tiebreaks do not come into play.

That is why Malukas’ task is considerably harder than simply winning the race.

Even a victory without all the bonus points would leave him dependent on significant losses from the three drivers ahead.

For Lundgaard, meanwhile, the equation is considerably simpler: he controls his own destiny. A sufficiently strong result guarantees second regardless of what Kirkwood and O’Ward do.

Kirkwood and O’Ward are in an almost identical position. With only two and four points separating them from Lundgaard, either driver can take second simply by finishing ahead of the Dane by enough positions.

Laguna Seca could decide everything

Qualifying has already given the championship battle an interesting shape.

Scott McLaughlin starts from pole after beating Palou by just 0.0177s, while the four drivers fighting for second are scattered behind the front runners.

Malukas has the best starting position of the quartet in fifth, followed by Kirkwood in sixth. Lundgaard starts 11th after his penalty, while O’Ward lines up 12th.

The difference in track position could be decisive over 95 laps.

And there is another factor: Laguna Seca has already produced some of the wildest finishes in IndyCar history. The 2023 season finale at the same circuit featured a chaotic race in which even the safety car had to be refueled, while Scott Dixon took advantage of the disorder to win.

This time, the chaos could determine not just the winner, but who leaves California as Palou’s successor in second place.

The Grand Prix of Monterey starts at 12:05 p.m. local time on Sunday, September 6, with 95 laps scheduled at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. GRANDE PRÊMIO follows all the action from the 2026 IndyCar season finale.

FAQ

1. Who is currently second in the 2026 IndyCar standings?

Christian Lundgaard leads the runner-up battle with 507 points, followed by Kyle Kirkwood with 505, Pato O’Ward with 503 and David Malukas with 484.

2. Can David Malukas still finish second in IndyCar?

Yes. Malukas is 23 points behind Lundgaard with a maximum of 54 points available at Laguna Seca. However, he needs a very strong result while also relying on Lundgaard, Kirkwood and O’Ward to score significantly fewer points.

3. Where will the four contenders start at Laguna Seca?

After the grid penalties, David Malukas starts fifth, Kyle Kirkwood sixth, Christian Lundgaard 11th and Pato O’Ward 12th. That gives Malukas and Kirkwood an important track-position advantage over their two Arrow McLaren rivals.