Which F1 drivers can take second place from Russell at the United States GP?

News Summary

• Three drivers can overtake George Russell for second place in the championship at Austin: Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc.
• Hamilton trails Russell by nine points, while Verstappen is 17 behind and Leclerc 23.
• Russell has scored only two points across the last two grands prix, while Verstappen has won both races.

George Russell could lose second place in the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship to Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc at the United States Grand Prix, with just 23 points separating the Mercedes driver from the three rivals immediately behind him.

Russell arrives at the Circuit of The Americas with 238 points, holding a nine-point advantage over Hamilton, who has 229. Verstappen is fourth with 221, followed by Leclerc on 215.

The championship picture has changed considerably over the last two rounds. Russell retired from the Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang with a power-unit problem and subsequently finished ninth in Singapore after starting near the back of the grid.

Meanwhile, Verstappen won both races, recovering valuable ground as Red Bull’s recent improvements transformed the competitive order.

The Dutchman has already become one of Russell’s most significant threats, as examined in GRANDE PRÊMIO’s analysis of Verstappen’s comeback and the battle for second place.

F1 championship standings before the United States GP

With Austin taking place as a conventional race weekend without a sprint, a maximum of 25 championship points will be available.

That means Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc can all move ahead of Russell, while Norris cannot catch him during the American round.

What does Hamilton need to overtake Russell in Austin?

Hamilton has the most straightforward opportunity.

The seven-time world champion is nine points behind Russell, meaning he needs to outscore his former Mercedes team-mate by at least ten points to move ahead without relying on a championship tie-break.

If Hamilton wins the United States Grand Prix, he will collect 25 points and reach 254.

Russell would then need to finish at least fourth to remain ahead. A fourth-place finish would give him 12 points and increase his total to 250, still four behind Hamilton — meaning even fourth would not be enough.

In fact, Russell would need to finish third or higher to remain ahead of Hamilton if the Ferrari driver wins.

Other results could also allow Hamilton to take second place. A runner-up finish would give him 18 points, enough to move ahead if Russell scores no more than six.

Hamilton’s opportunity is particularly significant because Ferrari demonstrated strong pace at Singapore, where Leclerc finished second and Hamilton sixth.

However, Hamilton’s result was affected by a strategy problem. Team principal Frédéric Vasseur explained that Hamilton missed Ferrari’s pit call during a Virtual Safety Car period, potentially costing him a better result.

How Verstappen can move ahead of Russell

Verstappen enters Austin with 221 points, 17 behind Russell.

To move ahead outright, the Red Bull driver must gain at least 18 points on the Mercedes driver.

That creates a more restrictive scenario than Hamilton’s.

If Verstappen wins in Austin, Russell must score no more than six points for the Dutchman to move into second place.

A victory would take Verstappen to 246 points. Russell would reach 244 with sixth place, 242 with seventh and 240 with eighth.

However, fifth place would give Russell ten points, taking him to 248 and keeping him ahead of Verstappen.

The Dutchman could also draw level with Russell by finishing second if the Mercedes driver fails to score, although the resulting position would depend on the championship countback.

Verstappen’s recent form makes the possibility particularly relevant.

After finishing second to Russell in Azerbaijan, he won the Malaysian Grand Prix and then completed a dominant Singapore weekend, taking pole position and victory in both the sprint and main race.

His latest success continued Red Bull’s recovery during the second half of the season.

Can Leclerc take second place from Russell?

Leclerc faces the most difficult task among the three contenders.

The Ferrari driver has 215 points, 23 fewer than Russell, and therefore needs to gain at least 24 points to move ahead outright.

With only 25 points available in Austin, the mathematical requirements are extremely narrow.

Leclerc must win the United States Grand Prix and hope Russell fails to score.

A victory would take the Monegasque to 240 points, two ahead of Russell’s current total.

Even a tenth-place finish for Russell would reduce that advantage to one point, leaving Leclerc ahead on 240 to 239.

However, if Russell finishes ninth and scores two points, both drivers would have 240, with their positions determined by the championship tie-break rules.

A second-place finish would not be enough for Leclerc to overtake Russell, even if the Mercedes driver retired.

Leclerc’s Singapore podium nevertheless demonstrated Ferrari’s ability to challenge near the front, particularly as the championship enters its final six rounds.

What results would put Russell’s second place at risk?

The following scenarios show what happens if each challenger wins the United States Grand Prix.

The table assumes the other drivers’ results do not affect the points calculation between Russell and the named rival. Russell’s position relative to all championship contenders would still depend on their combined results.

For Hamilton, the required points swing is ten. Verstappen needs 18, while Leclerc requires 24.

Russell could therefore lose second place even with a points finish, depending on which rival wins the race.

Why Russell’s recent Mercedes problems matter

Russell’s position has become vulnerable partly because of circumstances beyond outright race pace.

He won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix but retired from the following race at Sepang after suffering a power-unit failure.

The resulting component changes forced him to start near the back of the grid in Singapore, where he recovered to ninth place and collected two points.

Mercedes has also been evaluating its latest aerodynamic developments, with Russell using an older specification at Marina Bay while championship leader Kimi Antonelli retained the updated W17.

The team subsequently confirmed that Antonelli’s upgraded package was faster by the end of the Singapore weekend.

Russell also faces the possibility of another power-unit penalty later in the season, with Las Vegas emerging as a potential venue for the change.

When is the United States Grand Prix?

The United States Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit of The Americas in Austin from October 23 to 25.

Sunday’s race begins at 15:00 local time in Texas, equivalent to 16:00 on the United States East Coast and 20:00 in the United Kingdom.

The weekend features three free-practice sessions, qualifying and the grand prix, with no sprint scheduled.

The full 2026 United States Grand Prix timetable and international start times are available on GRANDE PRÊMIO.