Can Russell win the 2026 F1 title without relying on Antonelli after Baku?

Antonelli leads Russell 302 points to 236 after Baku.
A maximum of 208 points remains: 200 from eight Grands Prix and eight from the Singapore Sprint.
If Russell wins all nine remaining races and Antonelli finishes second in each, Antonelli still wins the title by nine points.

George Russell remains in contention for the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship after his victory at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, but he cannot secure the title solely through his own results. His win in Baku cut teammate Kimi Antonelli’s lead from 81 to 66 points. With eight Grands Prix and the Singapore Sprint still to run, Russell needs Antonelli to finish below second place in some of those events.

Russell took 25 points for winning in Baku, while Antonelli recovered from 16th on the grid to finish fifth and collect ten. The Mercedes drivers now have 236 and 302 points respectively, leaving Russell closer than he was before the weekend but still facing a substantial deficit.

The clearest way to measure what Russell controls is to give him the maximum score from here: eight Grand Prix victories and a Singapore Sprint win. That would add 208 points and take him to 444. If Antonelli finished second in every remaining Grand Prix and in the Sprint, he would add 151 points and finish on 453. Russell would win every available race yet end the season nine points behind.

That calculation makes the condition clear. Antonelli must lose more points to Russell than a run of second places would allow. A Grand Prix win is worth 25 points and second place 18, a gain of seven for Russell. Third place earns 15, increasing Russell’s gain over Antonelli to ten. The Singapore Sprint offers a further opportunity, with eight points for first and seven for second.

For example, if Russell won all eight remaining Grands Prix and the Sprint, while Antonelli finished second in five Grands Prix, third in three and second in the Sprint, both drivers would finish on 444 points. Russell would then hold the advantage on the number of Grand Prix victories: eight more wins would take him beyond Antonelli’s current total of eight. This is an illustration of the points available, not a prediction of their finishing positions.

The task changes with every point Russell fails to score. A second place for him instead of a Grand Prix victory costs seven points from that maximum of 444, requiring a correspondingly larger loss for Antonelli elsewhere. Results involving other drivers could therefore affect the title race even when Russell finishes ahead of his teammate.

Mercedes has already secured a significant advantage in the Constructors’ Championship, but its drivers’ title remains open. The next opportunity for Russell to reduce the gap comes at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, held at Sepang from 2 to 4 October. Singapore’s Sprint follows on the next race weekend.

F1 today: FAQ

What time does F1 practice start at Sepang?

Friday practice begins on 2 October. FP1 starts at 05:30 BST in the UK, 10:00 IST in India and 14:30 AEST in Sydney and Melbourne. In New York and Toronto, it starts at 00:30 EDT; in Los Angeles and Vancouver, at 21:30 PDT on Thursday. FP2 begins three and a half hours later.

Is Esteban Ocon leaving Haas and retiring from F1?

Ocon will leave Haas at the end of 2026, but says he intends to remain in Formula 1. He has not announced retirement and would consider a reserve role while seeking another race seat.

What happened to Oscar Piastri at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Piastri was running near the front in Baku before a mistake during a Safety Car restart dropped him out of podium contention. He finished 14th, adding to a difficult 2026 season for the McLaren driver.